Early Projections for the 2025 Seattle Mariners

Projection season is upon us, with various models offering insights into the potential performance of the Seattle Mariners in the upcoming season. Here’s a breakdown of what some of these projections, including FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections, suggest about the 2025 Mariners:

Pitching Depth:

The Mariners boast a strong pitching rotation, with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert leading the charge. ZiPS projections indicate a close competition between the two, with Kirby slightly edging out Gilbert in projected fWAR (3.7 vs. 3.5). Kirby, an All-Star in 2023, has consistently maintained a sub-3.53 ERA throughout his MLB career and is known for his exceptional control, leading the league in fewest walks per nine innings (1.1) in 2024. His ZiPS projection includes a 13-9 record, a 3.32 ERA, 173 1/3 innings pitched, 162 strikeouts, and only 25 walks. The projections also suggest strong seasons for the remaining rotation members, with all five starters projected to have an ERA of 3.63 or better and an fWAR of at least 2.0.

Offensive Firepower:

The Mariners’ offensive potential is bolstered by the presence of two projected top-15 fWAR players: Julio Rodríguez (7th with 5.8 fWAR) and Cal Raleigh (11th with 5.3 fWAR). While Rodríguez’s 2024 season was considered a disappointment compared to his previous performance, ZiPS projects a return to form for the young outfielder in 2025. His projected stat line includes a .281/.338/.469 slash line, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 27 home runs, 91 RBIs, 27 stolen bases, and a 135 wRC+. Raleigh, coming off consecutive 30-homer seasons, holds the MLB record for most home runs hit by a catcher in his first four years (94). Projected to be a defensive stalwart (only Patrick Bailey is projected higher defensively), Raleigh’s 2025 projections include a .230/.310/.461 slash line, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 28 home runs, 65 RBIs, 3 stolen bases, and a 123 wRC+.

Bounce-Back Potential:

The Mariners’ offensive success in 2025 will depend on several players rebounding from subpar 2024 seasons. ZiPS projections are particularly optimistic about J.P. Crawford’s potential for a bounce-back year. After a career-best performance in 2023, Crawford struggled in 2024, hampered by injuries and a career-low .202 average. While ZiPS doesn’t project him to replicate his 2023 offensive numbers, they anticipate a return to the level of performance he displayed in 2021 and 2022.
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